Primera Nacional · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 22:30. Final score 3–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 65% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 65% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts San Martin Tucuman at 50%, the draw at 29% and Midland at 21%, from expected goals of 1.36 and 0.78.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.88 | 33% | 35% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67% | 65% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 42% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: San Martin Tucuman 2.10, draw 2.80, Midland 3.90.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 31% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. San Martin Tucuman have 10 in 33 this season (6 of 16 at home), Midland 9 in 33 (6 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 30% and 29%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 33 and 33 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 30% and 29%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 29%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.36 for San Martin Tucuman and 0.78 for Midland. Folding in 30% of that view gives 31%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 35%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martin Tucuman | 33 | 30% | 12% | 42% |
| Midland | 33 | 27% | 12% | 36% |
More: San Martin Tucuman season stats · Midland season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.