Super League · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 19:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 50% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts PAOK at 71%, the draw at 20% and Iraklis 1908 at 9%, from expected goals of 2.01 and 0.56.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 50% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 50% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 47% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: PAOK 1.36, draw 5.00, Iraklis 1908 7.50.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. PAOK have 5 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), Iraklis 1908 1 in 6 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 43%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 2.01 for PAOK and 0.56 for Iraklis 1908. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK | 6 | 83% | 67% | 67% |
| Iraklis 1908 | 6 | 17% | 17% | 33% |
More: PAOK season stats · Iraklis 1908 season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.