Super League · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 14:00. Final score 4–3 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 7, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Kalamata at 49%, the draw at 24% and OFI at 27%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 1.23.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 54% | +8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 46% | -8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 52% | 52% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Kalamata 2.90, draw 3.10, OFI 2.50.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kalamata have 3 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), OFI 3 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.75 for Kalamata and 1.23 for OFI. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Kalamata season stats · OFI season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.