3. Liga · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 12:30. Final score 2–1 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 68% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts Hoffenheim II at 39%, the draw at 23% and Verl at 38%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 1.7.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 70% | 68% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 30% | 32% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66% | 68% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Hoffenheim II 1.80, draw 4.00, Verl 3.30.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hoffenheim II have 6 in 9 this season (3 of 4 at home), Verl 7 in 9 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 68%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 67% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 1.74 for Hoffenheim II and 1.7 for Verl. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim II | 9 | 67% | 56% | 67% |
| Verl | 9 | 78% | 44% | 89% |
More: Hoffenheim II season stats · Verl season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.