Primera Nacional · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 22:00. Final score 6–3 (half-time 3–2). Before kick-off we rated it 65% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 9, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 65% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 88% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts Godoy Cruz at 45%, the draw at 32% and CA Estudiantes at 23%, from expected goals of 1.16 and 0.74.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 35% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 65% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 41% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Godoy Cruz 1.62, draw 3.30, CA Estudiantes 6.25.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 31% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Godoy Cruz have 15 in 33 this season (10 of 16 at home), CA Estudiantes 9 in 33 (4 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 29%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 33 and 33 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 37% and 28%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 32%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 30%, from expected goals of 1.16 for Godoy Cruz and 0.74 for CA Estudiantes. Folding in 30% of that view gives 32%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 35%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godoy Cruz | 33 | 45% | 15% | 48% |
| CA Estudiantes | 33 | 27% | 3% | 33% |
More: Godoy Cruz season stats · CA Estudiantes season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.