Liga Profesional · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 22:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 67% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 60% | No |
The result model puts Estudiantes L.P. at 51%, the draw at 30% and San Lorenzo at 19%, from expected goals of 1.27 and 0.65.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 33% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59% | 67% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 47% | 40% | -6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Estudiantes L.P. 2.10, draw 3.10, San Lorenzo 3.90.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Estudiantes L.P. have 10 in 29 this season (7 of 15 at home), San Lorenzo 4 in 29 (1 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 24%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 29 and 29 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 35% and 25%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 31%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 29%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 30%, from expected goals of 1.27 for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.65 for San Lorenzo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 30%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes L.P. | 29 | 34% | 10% | 24% |
| San Lorenzo | 29 | 14% | 7% | 28% |
More: Estudiantes L.P. season stats · San Lorenzo season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.