Liga MX · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 04:10. Final score 5–0 (half-time 3–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Cruz Azul at 64%, the draw at 19% and FC Juarez at 17%, from expected goals of 2.45 and 1.23.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 61% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 39% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 52% | 61% | +9% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Cruz Azul 1.28, draw 5.25, FC Juarez 11.00.
The league sets the starting point. Liga MX has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cruz Azul have 8 in 11 this season (4 of 6 at home), FC Juarez 6 in 11 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 2.45 for Cruz Azul and 1.23 for FC Juarez. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Cruz Azul season stats · FC Juarez season stats · Liga MX table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.