Primera Nacional · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 21:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 63% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Club Atlético Güemes at 30%, the draw at 28% and Almagro at 42%, from expected goals of 1.05 and 1.31.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 39% | 37% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 63% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Club Atlético Güemes 6.50, draw 3.50, Almagro 1.53.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 31% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Club Atlético Güemes have 13 in 33 this season (6 of 16 at home), Almagro 11 in 33 (6 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 32%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 33 and 33 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 34% and 31%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 32%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 30%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.05 for Club Atlético Güemes and 1.31 for Almagro. Folding in 30% of that view gives 34%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético Güemes | 33 | 39% | 18% | 52% |
| Almagro | 33 | 33% | 12% | 42% |
More: Club Atlético Güemes season stats · Almagro season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.