Bundesliga · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 16:30. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 69% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 34% | Yes |
The result model puts Borussia Mönchengladbach at 38%, the draw at 21% and 1899 Hoffenheim at 40%, from expected goals of 2.01 and 2.06.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 70% | 69% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.20 | 30% | 31% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 | 69% | 66% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.00, draw 4.00, 1899 Hoffenheim 2.10.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Borussia Mönchengladbach have 5 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), 1899 Hoffenheim 5 in 5 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 71%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 77%, from expected goals of 2.01 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.06 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 100% | 60% | 60% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 100% | 80% | 100% |
More: Borussia Mönchengladbach season stats · 1899 Hoffenheim season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.