Stars League · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 15:30. Final score 2–3 (half-time 2–2). Before kick-off we rated it 65% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Al Sadd at 31%, the draw at 23% and Al-Duhail SC at 46%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 1.93.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 66% | 65% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 34% | 35% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66% | 64% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Al Sadd 1.85, draw 3.75, Al-Duhail SC 3.10.
The league sets the starting point. Stars League has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al Sadd have 5 in 5 this season (3 of 3 at home), Al-Duhail SC 1 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 68% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.57 for Al Sadd and 1.93 for Al-Duhail SC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Sadd | 5 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Al-Duhail SC | 5 | 20% | 20% | 60% |
More: Al Sadd season stats · Al-Duhail SC season stats · Stars League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.