Stars League · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 17:45. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 67% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Al-Gharafa at 30%, the draw at 23% and Al-Rayyan SC at 47%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 1.93.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 67% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 35% | 33% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 64% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Al-Gharafa 4.75, draw 4.20, Al-Rayyan SC 1.48.
The league sets the starting point. Stars League has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al-Gharafa have 4 in 5 this season (2 of 3 at home), Al-Rayyan SC 3 in 5 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 65% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 1.52 for Al-Gharafa and 1.93 for Al-Rayyan SC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Gharafa | 5 | 80% | 60% | 80% |
| Al-Rayyan SC | 5 | 60% | 0% | 40% |
More: Al-Gharafa season stats · Al-Rayyan SC season stats · Stars League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.