Pro League · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 19:00. Final score 2–3 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Al-Fateh at 32%, the draw at 27% and Al Khaleej Saihat at 41%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 1.39.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 53% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 47% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 55% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Al-Fateh 1.85, draw 3.50, Al Khaleej Saihat 3.40.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al-Fateh have 5 in 9 this season (2 of 4 at home), Al Khaleej Saihat 2 in 9 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.2 for Al-Fateh and 1.39 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Fateh | 9 | 56% | 33% | 44% |
| Al Khaleej Saihat | 9 | 22% | 11% | 44% |
More: Al-Fateh season stats · Al Khaleej Saihat season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.