Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 11:15. Final score 1–4 (half-time 0–3). Before kick-off we rated it 63% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Ajax W at 46%, the draw at 24% and PSV/Eindhoven W at 29%, from expected goals of 1.71 and 1.31.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59% | 63% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 37% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Ajax W 2.10, draw 3.70, PSV/Eindhoven W 2.75.
The league sets the starting point. Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ajax W have 4 in 7 this season (2 of 4 at home), PSV/Eindhoven W 5 in 7 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 67%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.71 for Ajax W and 1.31 for PSV/Eindhoven W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax W | 7 | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| PSV/Eindhoven W | 7 | 71% | 57% | 29% |
More: Ajax W season stats · PSV/Eindhoven W season stats · Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.