League One · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 15:00. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 55% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Wycombe at 52%, the draw at 23% and Notts County at 25%, from expected goals of 1.93 and 1.26.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 55% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 45% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 55% | 58% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Wycombe 1.90, draw 3.40, Notts County 4.00.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Wycombe have 6 in 9 this season (4 of 5 at home), Notts County 3 in 8 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.93 for Wycombe and 1.26 for Notts County. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wycombe | 9 | 67% | 56% | 89% |
| Notts County | 8 | 38% | 13% | 75% |
More: Wycombe season stats · Notts County season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.