Canadian Premier League · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 03:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Vancouver FC at 35%, the draw at 24% and HFX Wanderers FC at 41%, from expected goals of 1.56 and 1.7.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 58% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 42% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 60% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Vancouver FC 2.00, draw 3.60, HFX Wanderers FC 3.10.
The league sets the starting point. Canadian Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vancouver FC have 12 in 26 this season (6 of 13 at home), HFX Wanderers FC 15 in 26 (7 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 26 and 26 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 36%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.56 for Vancouver FC and 1.7 for HFX Wanderers FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver FC | 26 | 46% | 38% | 58% |
| HFX Wanderers FC | 26 | 58% | 46% | 65% |
More: Vancouver FC season stats · HFX Wanderers FC season stats · Canadian Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.