Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 14:00. Final score 0–5 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 65% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Uppsala W at 14%, the draw at 19% and Kristianstad W at 67%, from expected goals of 1 and 2.35.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.30 | 72% | 65% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 28% | 35% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 52% | +8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Uppsala W 19.00, draw 9.50, Kristianstad W 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Uppsala W have 16 in 21 this season (7 of 10 at home), Kristianstad W 12 in 21 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 21 and 21 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 70% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1 for Uppsala W and 2.35 for Kristianstad W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uppsala W | 21 | 76% | 62% | 33% |
| Kristianstad W | 21 | 57% | 48% | 48% |
More: Uppsala W season stats · Kristianstad W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.