Primera Nacional · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 20:30. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 70% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 89% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 36% | 64% | No |
The result model puts Tristan Suarez at 56%, the draw at 31% and Patronato at 14%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 0.47.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 28% | 30% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 72% | 70% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 2.75 | 34% | 36% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Tristan Suarez 1.75, draw 3.00, Patronato 5.25.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 31% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tristan Suarez have 8 in 33 this season (5 of 16 at home), Patronato 8 in 33 (3 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 27%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 33 and 33 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 27% and 27%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 28%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 27%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 25%, from expected goals of 1.26 for Tristan Suarez and 0.47 for Patronato. Folding in 30% of that view gives 27%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 30%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Suarez | 33 | 24% | 12% | 27% |
| Patronato | 33 | 24% | 9% | 33% |
More: Tristan Suarez season stats · Patronato season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.