League One · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 15:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Stockport County at 65%, the draw at 18% and Bromley at 17%, from expected goals of 2.52 and 1.22.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 72% | 59% | -13% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 28% | 41% | +13% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53% | 58% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Stockport County 1.25, draw 6.00, Bromley 10.00.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stockport County have 6 in 9 this season (4 of 5 at home), Bromley 5 in 8 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 2.52 for Stockport County and 1.22 for Bromley. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport County | 9 | 67% | 56% | 56% |
| Bromley | 8 | 63% | 38% | 63% |
More: Stockport County season stats · Bromley season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.