3. Liga · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 13:00. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts SSV Jahn Regensburg at 43%, the draw at 27% and SV Wehen at 30%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 1.16.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 57% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 39% | 43% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 59% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.30, draw 3.40, SV Wehen 2.55.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SSV Jahn Regensburg have 8 in 9 this season (3 of 4 at home), SV Wehen 5 in 9 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 62% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.46 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.16 for SV Wehen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSV Jahn Regensburg | 9 | 89% | 67% | 78% |
| SV Wehen | 9 | 56% | 44% | 44% |
More: SSV Jahn Regensburg season stats · SV Wehen season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.