2. Bundesliga · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 12:00. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 34%, the draw at 24% and Eintracht Braunschweig at 42%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 1.66.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 58% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 42% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 59% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.10, draw 3.60, Eintracht Braunschweig 3.10.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have 3 in 7 this season (1 of 3 at home), Eintracht Braunschweig 4 in 7 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.47 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.66 for Eintracht Braunschweig. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 7 | 43% | 29% | 86% |
| Eintracht Braunschweig | 7 | 57% | 57% | 57% |
More: SpVgg Greuther Fürth season stats · Eintracht Braunschweig season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.