Premier League · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 16:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 50% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Shakhtar Donetsk at 67%, the draw at 19% and Kolos Kovalivka at 13%, from expected goals of 2.19 and 0.85.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59% | 51% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 49% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 47% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.22, draw 5.00, Kolos Kovalivka 9.50.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Shakhtar Donetsk have 4 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), Kolos Kovalivka 4 in 7 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 2.19 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.85 for Kolos Kovalivka. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 50% | 13% | 25% |
| Kolos Kovalivka | 7 | 57% | 43% | 57% |
More: Shakhtar Donetsk season stats · Kolos Kovalivka season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.