Primera Nacional · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 19:30. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 68% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 68% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 88% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts San Miguel at 41%, the draw at 33% and Ciudad de Bolívar at 26%, from expected goals of 1.05 and 0.78.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 30% | 32% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 70% | 68% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 42% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: San Miguel 2.45, draw 2.80, Ciudad de Bolívar 3.20.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 31% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. San Miguel have 10 in 33 this season (4 of 16 at home), Ciudad de Bolívar 8 in 33 (3 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 30% and 27%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 33 and 33 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 30% and 27%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 29%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 28%, from expected goals of 1.05 for San Miguel and 0.78 for Ciudad de Bolívar. Folding in 30% of that view gives 28%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 32%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Miguel | 33 | 30% | 6% | 48% |
| Ciudad de Bolívar | 33 | 24% | 12% | 39% |
More: San Miguel season stats · Ciudad de Bolívar season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.