Premiere Ligue (W) · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 17:00. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Saint-Malo W at 37%, the draw at 24% and Nantes W at 39%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 1.59.
The league sets the starting point. Premiere Ligue (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Saint-Malo W have 1 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Nantes W 0 in 4 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.55 for Saint-Malo W and 1.59 for Nantes W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Malo W | 4 | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Nantes W | 4 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
More: Saint-Malo W season stats · Nantes W season stats · Premiere Ligue (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.