Premyer Liqa · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 16:00. Final score 3–3 (half-time 1–2). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Qarabag at 44%, the draw at 26% and Neftchi Baku at 30%, from expected goals of 1.49 and 1.18.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 51% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 49% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 49% | -8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Qarabag 1.80, draw 3.40, Neftchi Baku 3.90.
The league sets the starting point. Premyer Liqa has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Qarabag have 2 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), Neftchi Baku 5 in 7 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 48% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 70%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.49 for Qarabag and 1.18 for Neftchi Baku. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qarabag | 6 | 33% | 33% | 50% |
| Neftchi Baku | 7 | 71% | 57% | 43% |
More: Qarabag season stats · Neftchi Baku season stats · Premyer Liqa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.