Premiere Ligue (W) · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 20:05. Final score 0–4 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 60% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Paris Saint Germain W at 21%, the draw at 22% and Lyon W at 57%, from expected goals of 1.12 and 2.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 60% | +9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 40% | -9% |
| Both teams to score | 2.38 | 39% | 51% | +12% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Paris Saint Germain W 7.50, draw 4.75, Lyon W 1.33.
The league sets the starting point. Premiere Ligue (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Paris Saint Germain W have 1 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Lyon W 4 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 43%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.12 for Paris Saint Germain W and 2 for Lyon W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain W | 4 | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Lyon W | 4 | 100% | 100% | 75% |
More: Paris Saint Germain W season stats · Lyon W season stats · Premiere Ligue (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.