HNL · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 14:00. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 36%, the draw at 26% and Istra 1961 at 37%, from expected goals of 1.34 and 1.37.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 51% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 49% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 55% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2.25, draw 3.30, Istra 1961 2.70.
The league sets the starting point. HNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have 5 in 9 this season (1 of 3 at home), Istra 1961 7 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 55%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.34 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.37 for Istra 1961. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 56% | 44% | 67% |
| Istra 1961 | 9 | 78% | 67% | 67% |
More: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb season stats · Istra 1961 season stats · HNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.