Premier League · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 17:30. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Newcastle at 46%, the draw at 23% and Aston Villa at 31%, from expected goals of 1.88 and 1.51.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 59% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 40% | 41% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 59% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Newcastle 2.40, draw 3.60, Aston Villa 2.75.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Newcastle have 5 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), Aston Villa 4 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 1.88 for Newcastle and 1.51 for Aston Villa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 6 | 83% | 67% | 83% |
| Aston Villa | 6 | 67% | 50% | 50% |
More: Newcastle season stats · Aston Villa season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.