Ligat Ha'al · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 17:15. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Maccabi Netanya at 47%, the draw at 24% and Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 30%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 1.39.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 58% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 42% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 58% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Maccabi Netanya 1.75, draw 3.50, Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3.80.
The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Maccabi Netanya have 2 in 6 this season (1 of 3 at home), Ironi Kiryat Shmona 4 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.79 for Maccabi Netanya and 1.39 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Netanya | 6 | 33% | 17% | 67% |
| Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 6 | 67% | 50% | 50% |
More: Maccabi Netanya season stats · Ironi Kiryat Shmona season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.