A-League · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 07:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Macarthur at 45%, the draw at 23% and Perth Glory at 32%, from expected goals of 1.8 and 1.48.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 57% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 44% | 43% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 59% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Macarthur 1.91, draw 3.75, Perth Glory 3.60.
The league sets the starting point. A-League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Macarthur have 0 in 0 this season, Perth Glory 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 86%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 1.8 for Macarthur and 1.48 for Perth Glory. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macarthur | 0 | — | — | — |
| Perth Glory | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Macarthur season stats · Perth Glory season stats · A-League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.