First Division · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 16:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 51% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Krasava Ypsonas at 35%, the draw at 29% and Karmiotissa at 36%, from expected goals of 1.18 and 1.21.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 49% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 51% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 48% | -6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Krasava Ypsonas 2.15, draw 3.50, Karmiotissa 3.00.
The league sets the starting point. First Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Krasava Ypsonas have 4 in 5 this season (2 of 3 at home), Karmiotissa 3 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.18 for Krasava Ypsonas and 1.21 for Karmiotissa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krasava Ypsonas | 5 | 80% | 40% | 60% |
| Karmiotissa | 5 | 60% | 20% | 40% |
More: Krasava Ypsonas season stats · Karmiotissa season stats · First Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.