J2 League · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 10:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Kataller Toyama at 30%, the draw at 28% and Shonan Bellmare at 42%, from expected goals of 1.11 and 1.37.
The league sets the starting point. J2 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kataller Toyama have 5 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), Shonan Bellmare 3 in 10 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 41%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 44% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.11 for Kataller Toyama and 1.37 for Shonan Bellmare. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kataller Toyama | 10 | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Shonan Bellmare | 10 | 30% | 20% | 60% |
More: Kataller Toyama season stats · Shonan Bellmare season stats · J2 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.