PSL · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 14:30. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 69% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 69% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 62% | No |
The result model puts Golden Arrows at 49%, the draw at 37% and Milford FC at 14%, from expected goals of 0.97 and 0.38.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 39% | 31% | -9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 69% | +9% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 38% | -7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Golden Arrows 2.20, draw 2.90, Milford FC 3.10.
The league sets the starting point. PSL has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Golden Arrows have 1 in 7 this season (1 of 4 at home), Milford FC 2 in 8 (0 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 29%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 35% and 29%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 32%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 16%, from expected goals of 0.97 for Golden Arrows and 0.38 for Milford FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 27%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 31%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Arrows | 7 | 14% | 0% | 29% |
| Milford FC | 8 | 25% | 13% | 38% |
More: Golden Arrows season stats · Milford FC season stats · PSL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.