Bundesliga · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 14:30. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Schalke 04 at 26%, the draw at 24% and FSV Mainz 05 at 50%, from expected goals of 1.22 and 1.77.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 57% | 59% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 41% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 60% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FC Schalke 04 3.00, draw 3.70, FSV Mainz 05 2.30.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Schalke 04 have 3 in 5 this season (0 of 2 at home), FSV Mainz 05 4 in 5 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 67%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.22 for FC Schalke 04 and 1.77 for FSV Mainz 05. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 60% | 20% | 40% |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 80% | 80% | 60% |
More: FC Schalke 04 season stats · FSV Mainz 05 season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.