2. Liga · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 16:30. Final score 4–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts FC BW Linz at 64%, the draw at 19% and FC Liefering at 17%, from expected goals of 2.31 and 1.12.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 71% | 57% | -14% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.25 | 29% | 43% | +14% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 54% | -8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FC BW Linz 1.48, draw 4.50, FC Liefering 5.00.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC BW Linz have 6 in 8 this season (4 of 4 at home), FC Liefering 8 in 8 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 2.31 for FC BW Linz and 1.12 for FC Liefering. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC BW Linz | 8 | 75% | 25% | 50% |
| FC Liefering | 8 | 100% | 88% | 75% |
More: FC BW Linz season stats · FC Liefering season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.