PSL · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 14:30. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 62% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Chippa United at 29%, the draw at 32% and Kruger United at 39%, from expected goals of 0.87 and 1.05.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 38% | +0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 62% | 0% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 43% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Chippa United 2.40, draw 2.88, Kruger United 2.80.
The league sets the starting point. PSL has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chippa United have 1 in 7 this season (1 of 4 at home), Kruger United 3 in 7 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 33%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 35% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 30%, from expected goals of 0.87 for Chippa United and 1.05 for Kruger United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 35%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chippa United | 7 | 14% | 0% | 43% |
| Kruger United | 7 | 43% | 29% | 29% |
More: Chippa United season stats · Kruger United season stats · PSL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.