Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 13:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 67% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Brommapojkarna W at 52%, the draw at 22% and Växjö W at 26%, from expected goals of 2.09 and 1.45.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 68% | +7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 39% | 32% | -7% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 56% | -7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Brommapojkarna W 1.83, draw 3.60, Växjö W 3.40.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Brommapojkarna W have 13 in 21 this season (7 of 10 at home), Växjö W 14 in 21 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 21 and 21 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 2.09 for Brommapojkarna W and 1.45 for Växjö W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brommapojkarna W | 21 | 62% | 29% | 52% |
| Växjö W | 21 | 67% | 33% | 33% |
More: Brommapojkarna W season stats · Växjö W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.