Serie B · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 14:00. Final score 2–2 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 52% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Benevento at 54%, the draw at 24% and Vicenza Virtus at 22%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 1.03.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 52% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 48% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 55% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Benevento 2.00, draw 3.25, Vicenza Virtus 3.75.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Benevento have 2 in 6 this season (2 of 4 at home), Vicenza Virtus 5 in 6 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.75 for Benevento and 1.03 for Vicenza Virtus. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento | 6 | 33% | 17% | 50% |
| Vicenza Virtus | 6 | 83% | 33% | 67% |
More: Benevento season stats · Vicenza Virtus season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.