Frauen-Bundesliga (W) · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 13:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 72% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 28% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Bayer Leverkusen W at 35%, the draw at 21% and Eintracht Frankfurt W at 44%, from expected goals of 1.91 and 2.17.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 72% | +9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 28% | -9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 65% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Bayer Leverkusen W 3.30, draw 3.70, Eintracht Frankfurt W 1.83.
The league sets the starting point. Frauen-Bundesliga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bayer Leverkusen W have 5 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), Eintracht Frankfurt W 2 in 6 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 69% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 77%, from expected goals of 1.91 for Bayer Leverkusen W and 2.17 for Eintracht Frankfurt W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 72%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen W | 6 | 83% | 33% | 83% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt W | 6 | 33% | 33% | 50% |
More: Bayer Leverkusen W season stats · Eintracht Frankfurt W season stats · Frauen-Bundesliga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.