Liga MX · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 04:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Atlante FC at 28%, the draw at 25% and U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 47%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 1.68.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 54% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 46% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 59% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Atlante FC 2.70, draw 3.50, U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2.55.
The league sets the starting point. Liga MX has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atlante FC have 4 in 11 this season (2 of 5 at home), U.N.A.M. - Pumas 7 in 11 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.26 for Atlante FC and 1.68 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlante FC | 11 | 36% | 18% | 64% |
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 64% | 36% | 64% |
More: Atlante FC season stats · U.N.A.M. - Pumas season stats · Liga MX table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.