FA WSL (W) · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 12:45. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 55% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Arsenal W at 73%, the draw at 18% and Birmingham City W at 9%, from expected goals of 2.25 and 0.65.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.22 | 77% | 55% | -21% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | 23% | 45% | +21% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 52% | +7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Arsenal W 1.10, draw 9.00, Birmingham City W 19.00.
The league sets the starting point. FA WSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Arsenal W have 1 in 5 this season (0 of 2 at home), Birmingham City W 4 in 5 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 2.25 for Arsenal W and 0.65 for Birmingham City W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal W | 5 | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Birmingham City W | 5 | 80% | 60% | 80% |
More: Arsenal W season stats · Birmingham City W season stats · FA WSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.