Süper Lig · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 14:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Amed at 58%, the draw at 22% and Konyaspor at 20%, from expected goals of 2.06 and 1.13.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 57% | +12% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 43% | -12% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 55% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Amed 1.80, draw 3.40, Konyaspor 4.10.
The league sets the starting point. Süper Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Amed have 6 in 7 this season (4 of 4 at home), Konyaspor 2 in 7 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.06 for Amed and 1.13 for Konyaspor. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Amed season stats · Konyaspor season stats · Süper Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.