Stars League · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 15:30. Final score 2–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 60% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Al-Sailiya at 27%, the draw at 25% and Qatar SC at 48%, from expected goals of 1.17 and 1.65.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 60% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 40% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 58% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Al-Sailiya 3.60, draw 3.90, Qatar SC 1.80.
The league sets the starting point. Stars League has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al-Sailiya have 3 in 5 this season (1 of 2 at home), Qatar SC 3 in 5 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.17 for Al-Sailiya and 1.65 for Qatar SC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Sailiya | 5 | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Qatar SC | 5 | 60% | 40% | 40% |
More: Al-Sailiya season stats · Qatar SC season stats · Stars League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.