Eredivisie · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 15:30. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 72% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 27% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts ADO Den Haag at 10%, the draw at 13% and PSV Eindhoven at 77%, from expected goals of 1.15 and 3.19.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.28 | 74% | 73% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.60 | 26% | 27% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 65% | +7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: ADO Den Haag 8.00, draw 6.25, PSV Eindhoven 1.28.
The league sets the starting point. Eredivisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. ADO Den Haag have 5 in 8 this season (2 of 3 at home), PSV Eindhoven 7 in 8 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 70%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 68% and 74%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 81%, from expected goals of 1.15 for ADO Den Haag and 3.19 for PSV Eindhoven. Folding in 30% of that view gives 73%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 8 | 63% | 63% | 75% |
| PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 88% | 75% | 88% |
More: ADO Den Haag season stats · PSV Eindhoven season stats · Eredivisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.