Ekstraklasa · Friday, 16 October 2026 · 17:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 56% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Wieczysta Kraków at 37%, the draw at 25% and Raków Częstochowa at 38%, from expected goals of 1.5 and 1.5.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 56% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 39% | 44% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 61% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Wieczysta Kraków 1.90, draw 3.50, Raków Częstochowa 3.50.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Wieczysta Kraków have 7 in 10 this season (2 of 3 at home), Raków Częstochowa 9 in 10 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.5 for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.5 for Raków Częstochowa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wieczysta Kraków | 10 | 70% | 30% | 70% |
| Raków Częstochowa | 10 | 90% | 40% | 90% |
More: Wieczysta Kraków season stats · Raków Częstochowa season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.