Frauen-Bundesliga (W) · Friday, 16 October 2026 · 17:30. Final score 0–3 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 66% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts SC Freiburg W at 56%, the draw at 22% and RB Leipzig W at 23%, from expected goals of 2.11 and 1.29.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 66% | +6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 34% | -6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 61% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: SC Freiburg W 2.62, draw 3.70, RB Leipzig W 2.15.
The league sets the starting point. Frauen-Bundesliga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SC Freiburg W have 3 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), RB Leipzig W 3 in 6 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 68% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 2.11 for SC Freiburg W and 1.29 for RB Leipzig W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg W | 6 | 50% | 17% | 50% |
| RB Leipzig W | 6 | 50% | 33% | 50% |
More: SC Freiburg W season stats · RB Leipzig W season stats · Frauen-Bundesliga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.