3. Liga · Friday, 16 October 2026 · 18:00. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 60% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Fortuna Köln at 35%, the draw at 27% and Stuttgart II at 39%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 1.37.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 60% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 39% | 40% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 61% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Fortuna Köln 2.15, draw 3.50, Stuttgart II 2.80.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fortuna Köln have 3 in 9 this season (0 of 4 at home), Stuttgart II 7 in 9 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 68%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.28 for Fortuna Köln and 1.37 for Stuttgart II. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Köln | 9 | 33% | 22% | 44% |
| Stuttgart II | 9 | 78% | 56% | 89% |
More: Fortuna Köln season stats · Stuttgart II season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.