Urvalsdeild · Friday, 16 October 2026 · 20:15. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 69% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts Breidablik at 18%, the draw at 18% and Vikingur Reykjavik at 63%, from expected goals of 1.36 and 2.59.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 69% | 69% | +0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 31% | 31% | 0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 68% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Breidablik 4.50, draw 4.33, Vikingur Reykjavik 1.50.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Breidablik have 18 in 25 this season (9 of 12 at home), Vikingur Reykjavik 19 in 25 (9 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 70%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 25 and 25 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 65% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 75%, from expected goals of 1.36 for Breidablik and 2.59 for Vikingur Reykjavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breidablik | 25 | 72% | 56% | 72% |
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 25 | 76% | 68% | 68% |
More: Breidablik season stats · Vikingur Reykjavik season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.