1. Lig · Thursday, 15 October 2026 · 18:00. Final score 0–3 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 53% for over 2.5 goals. This game was not captured by our pre-kick-off freeze, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Muğlaspor at 38%, the draw at 26% and Bursaspor at 36%, from expected goals of 1.44 and 1.39.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 53% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 47% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 53% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Muğlaspor 5.00, draw 3.70, Bursaspor 1.57.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Muğlaspor have 2 in 9 this season (2 of 4 at home), Bursaspor 7 in 9 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 46% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.44 for Muğlaspor and 1.39 for Bursaspor. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Muğlaspor season stats · Bursaspor season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.