MLS · Thursday, 15 October 2026 · 01:30. Final score 1–3 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 66% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Chicago Fire at 41%, the draw at 23% and Philadelphia Union at 36%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 1.65.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67% | 66% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.88 | 33% | 34% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 | 69% | 65% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Chicago Fire 2.55, draw 4.10, Philadelphia Union 2.45.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chicago Fire have 21 in 28 this season (11 of 14 at home), Philadelphia Union 19 in 28 (11 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 28 and 28 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 69% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 86%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 1.79 for Chicago Fire and 1.65 for Philadelphia Union. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 28 | 75% | 36% | 71% |
| Philadelphia Union | 28 | 68% | 46% | 68% |
More: Chicago Fire season stats · Philadelphia Union season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.