1. Lig · Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · 12:30. Final score 4–2 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Batman Petrolspor at 51%, the draw at 23% and İstanbulspor at 26%, from expected goals of 1.87 and 1.27.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 57% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 43% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 55% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Batman Petrolspor 1.62, draw 3.60, İstanbulspor 4.50.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Batman Petrolspor have 7 in 9 this season (3 of 4 at home), İstanbulspor 6 in 9 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.87 for Batman Petrolspor and 1.27 for İstanbulspor. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batman Petrolspor | 9 | 78% | 33% | 67% |
| İstanbulspor | 9 | 67% | 44% | 44% |
More: Batman Petrolspor season stats · İstanbulspor season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.